Match overview
AI win probability
Based on pre-game data.
On the model’s numbers, Arouca carries the higher win probability.
Our AI-based model makes predictions based on recent form, home performance, attacking and defensive metrics, and other available match data.
Form comparison
Based on each team's most recent matches before this fixture.
Goals per game
Goal markets
Share of recent matches where each line was met.
Alverca at home vs Arouca away
Venue form: home team in home matches, away team in away matches.
Prediction explained
Key factors
Indicators calculated from each team’s recent matches and their head-to-head record. They describe the data behind the pick and are not the model’s internal weights.
Why this prediction
Alverca face Arouca in a Primeira Liga fixture on 24 October 2026. Our AI model gives Alverca a 32% chance of winning, the draw 31% and Arouca 37%; Arouca carries the higher win probability (confidence: Low). Over their last 5 matches, Alverca have averaged 0.6 points per game against 0.6 for Arouca. Scoring and conceding rates point to about 1.8 goals for Alverca and 1.5 for Arouca. Recent matches involving the two teams average 3.3 goals, which points to a high-scoring game. The predicted score is Alverca 0–1 Arouca.
Statistics partly agree
The indicators are mixed or close to level, so recent data neither strongly backs nor contradicts the AI pick.
How confident is the call?
Confidence is based on the gap between the two most likely outcomes. For this match the gap is 5 percentage points, which rates as Low.
Our prediction
In PredictionsFooty’s model, Arouca carries the higher win probability, based on the available team and match data.
Last updated: 23 October 2026, 14:34 UTC
Team form and stats
Match facts
- Alverca: last 10 matches, won 1, drawn 0, lost 9 (scored 9, conceded 25, goal difference -16)
- Alverca: last 3 home matches, won 0, drawn 0, lost 3 (scored 2, conceded 9)
- Arouca: last 10 matches, won 1, drawn 1, lost 8 (scored 4, conceded 27, goal difference -23)
- Arouca kept a clean sheet in 1 of their last 10 matches
- Arouca: last 10 away matches, won 1, drawn 2, lost 7 (scored 5, conceded 25)
Recent results
Alverca recent results
Arouca recent results
Prediction accuracy
Track record before this match
How accuracy is measured
- Correct result: the predicted outcome (home win, draw or away win) matches the full-time outcome.
- Exact score: the predicted score equals the full-time score.
- Only finished matches that had a saved prediction are counted. Matches without a prediction are left out, so the sample size is shown on every figure.
- Predictions are saved before kick-off and are not changed afterwards.
- Figures with fewer than 5 predicted matches are not shown, because small samples swing too much to mean anything.
Match information
- CompetitionPrimeira Liga
- MatchAlverca vs Arouca
- Date24 October 2026
- Kick-off17:00 UTC / 18:00 UK
- Home teamAlverca
- Away teamArouca
- StatusScheduled
Frequently asked questions
Who is predicted to win Alverca vs Arouca?
In PredictionsFooty’s model, Arouca carries the higher win probability, based on the available match data.
What is the predicted score for Alverca vs Arouca?
The model predicts Alverca 0–1 Arouca, with low confidence.
When is Alverca vs Arouca?
The match is scheduled for 24 October 2026 at 17:00 UTC (18:00 UK time).
Where can I find Alverca vs Arouca statistics?
This page covers recent form, head-to-head records, team statistics and other match data used to build the prediction.
How have Alverca and Arouca been playing recently?
Alverca won 1 of their last 10 matches, scoring 0.9 goals per game. Arouca won 1 of their last 10, scoring 0.4 per game.