Match overview
AI win probability
Based on pre-game data.
On the model’s numbers, Alaves carries the higher win probability.
Our AI-based model makes predictions based on recent form, home performance, attacking and defensive metrics, and other available match data.
Form comparison
Based on each team's most recent matches before this fixture.
Goals per game
Goal markets
Share of recent matches where each line was met.
Alaves at home vs Malaga away
Venue form: home team in home matches, away team in away matches.
Current streaks
- Lost last 2
- Winless in last 5
- Winless in last 10
Prediction explained
Key factors
Indicators calculated from each team’s recent matches and their head-to-head record. They describe the data behind the pick and are not the model’s internal weights.
Why this prediction
Alaves face Malaga in a La Liga fixture on 23 October 2026. Our AI model gives Alaves a 37% chance of winning, the draw 33% and Malaga 30%; Alaves carries the higher win probability (confidence: Low). Over their last 5 matches, Alaves have averaged 0.2 points per game against 0.4 for Malaga. Scoring and conceding rates point to about 1.7 goals for Alaves and 0.9 for Malaga. Recent matches involving the two teams average 2.6 goals, which points to a balanced game. The predicted score is Alaves 1–1 Malaga.
Statistics agree
The recent-form and head-to-head indicators point the same way as the AI pick.
How confident is the call?
Confidence is based on the gap between the two most likely outcomes. For this match the gap is 4 percentage points, which rates as Low.
Our prediction
In PredictionsFooty’s model, Alaves carries the higher win probability, based on the available team and match data.
Last updated: 23 October 2026, 22:19 UTC
Team form and stats
Match facts
- Alaves: last 10 matches, won 3, drawn 2, lost 5 (scored 14, conceded 12, goal difference +2)
- Alaves kept a clean sheet in 3 of their last 10 matches
- Alaves: last 10 home matches, won 5, drawn 1, lost 4 (scored 18, conceded 14)
- Malaga: last 10 matches, won 0, drawn 4, lost 6 (scored 6, conceded 19, goal difference -13)
- Malaga kept a clean sheet in 1 of their last 10 matches
- Malaga: last 10 away matches, won 0, drawn 2, lost 8 (scored 4, conceded 17)
Recent results
Alaves recent results
Malaga recent results
Prediction accuracy
Track record before this match
How accuracy is measured
- Correct result: the predicted outcome (home win, draw or away win) matches the full-time outcome.
- Exact score: the predicted score equals the full-time score.
- Only finished matches that had a saved prediction are counted. Matches without a prediction are left out, so the sample size is shown on every figure.
- Predictions are saved before kick-off and are not changed afterwards.
- Figures with fewer than 5 predicted matches are not shown, because small samples swing too much to mean anything.
Match information
- CompetitionLa Liga
- MatchAlaves vs Malaga
- Date23 October 2026
- Kick-off19:00 UTC / 20:00 UK
- Home teamAlaves
- Away teamMalaga
- StatusScheduled
Frequently asked questions
Who is predicted to win Alaves vs Malaga?
In PredictionsFooty’s model, Alaves carries the higher win probability, based on the available match data.
What is the predicted score for Alaves vs Malaga?
The model predicts Alaves 1–1 Malaga, with low confidence.
When is Alaves vs Malaga?
The match is scheduled for 23 October 2026 at 19:00 UTC (20:00 UK time).
Where can I find Alaves vs Malaga statistics?
This page covers recent form, head-to-head records, team statistics and other match data used to build the prediction.
How have Alaves and Malaga been playing recently?
Alaves won 3 of their last 10 matches, scoring 1.4 goals per game. Malaga won 0 of their last 10, scoring 0.6 per game.