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Real Madrid vs RB Leipzig Prediction
Match overview
AI win probability
Based on pre-game data.
On the model’s numbers, Real Madrid carries the higher win probability.
Our AI-based model makes predictions based on recent form, home performance, attacking and defensive metrics, and other available match data.
Form comparison
Based on each team's most recent matches before this fixture.
Goals per game
Goal markets
Share of recent matches where each line was met.
Real Madrid at home vs RB Leipzig away
Venue form: home team in home matches, away team in away matches.
Current streaks
- Won last 3
No notable streak
Prediction explained
Key factors
Indicators calculated from each team’s recent matches and their head-to-head record. They describe the data behind the pick and are not the model’s internal weights.
Why this prediction
Real Madrid faced RB Leipzig in a UEFA Champions League fixture on 21 October 2026. Our AI model gives Real Madrid a 62% chance of winning, the draw 21% and RB Leipzig 17%; Real Madrid carries the higher win probability (confidence: High). Over their last 5 matches, Real Madrid have averaged 2.4 points per game against 1.8 for RB Leipzig. Scoring and conceding rates point to about 2.3 goals for Real Madrid and 1.6 for RB Leipzig. Recent matches involving the two teams average 3.9 goals, which points to a high-scoring game. In their last 4 meetings, Real Madrid won 2, 1 ended level and RB Leipzig won 1. The predicted score is Real Madrid 3–1 RB Leipzig.
Statistics agree
The recent-form and head-to-head indicators point the same way as the AI pick.
How confident is the call?
Confidence is based on the gap between the two most likely outcomes. For this match the gap is 41 percentage points, which rates as High.
Our prediction
In PredictionsFooty’s model, Real Madrid carries the higher win probability, based on the available team and match data.
Actual: Real Madrid 4-1 RB Leipzig
Insight
- This will be the clubs' fifth Champions League meeting.
- Real Madrid won 2-1 on aggregate in the 2023-24 last-16 tie before going on to lift the trophy.
- RB Leipzig have won just one of their four meetings with Madrid, a 3-2 home victory in 2022.
- Madrid kept only two clean sheets in their first 10 matches of the season.
- Real Madrid have won all six home matches this season, scoring 19 goals.
- Leipzig are winless in their last seven away matches in European competition.
Team form and stats
Upcoming matches
Match facts
- Last 4 meetings: Real Madrid won 2, drawn 1, RB Leipzig won 1 (10 goals in total, 2.5 per game)
- Both teams scored (BTTS) in 2 of the last 4 meetings
- 1 of the last 4 meetings had over 2.5 goals
- Last 2 meetings with Real Madrid at home: Real Madrid won 1, drawn 1, RB Leipzig won 0
- Real Madrid: last 10 matches, won 8, drawn 0, lost 2 (scored 27, conceded 12, goal difference +15)
- Real Madrid kept a clean sheet in 2 of their last 10 matches
- Real Madrid: last 10 home matches, won 9, drawn 1, lost 0 (scored 31, conceded 9)
- RB Leipzig: last 10 matches, won 4, drawn 0, lost 6 (scored 19, conceded 19, goal difference +0)
- RB Leipzig kept a clean sheet in 4 of their last 10 matches
- RB Leipzig: last 10 away matches, won 2, drawn 0, lost 8 (scored 11, conceded 29)
Head to head
Head-to-head summary
Last 4 meetings before this match.
- Last meetingReal Madrid 1-1 RB Leipzig (6 Mar 2024)
- Biggest winReal Madrid 2-0 RB Leipzig (14 Sep 2022)
Recent results
Real Madrid recent results
RB Leipzig recent results
Prediction accuracy
Track record before this match
How accuracy is measured
- Correct result: the predicted outcome (home win, draw or away win) matches the full-time outcome.
- Exact score: the predicted score equals the full-time score.
- Only finished matches that had a saved prediction are counted. Matches without a prediction are left out, so the sample size is shown on every figure.
- Predictions are saved before kick-off and are not changed afterwards.
- Figures with fewer than 5 predicted matches are not shown, because small samples swing too much to mean anything.
Match information
- CompetitionUEFA Champions League
- MatchReal Madrid vs RB Leipzig
- Date21 October 2026
- Kick-off19:00 UTC / 20:00 UK
- Home teamReal Madrid
- Away teamRB Leipzig
- StatusFinished (4-1)
Frequently asked questions
Who is predicted to win Real Madrid vs RB Leipzig?
In PredictionsFooty’s model, Real Madrid carries the higher win probability, based on the available match data.
What is the predicted score for Real Madrid vs RB Leipzig?
The model predicts Real Madrid 3–1 RB Leipzig, with high confidence.
What was the final score of Real Madrid vs RB Leipzig?
Real Madrid 4-1 RB Leipzig.
Was the prediction for Real Madrid vs RB Leipzig correct?
Partly. The predicted score was off, but the predicted outcome matched the real result.
When was Real Madrid vs RB Leipzig?
The match was played on 21 October 2026 at 19:00 UTC (20:00 UK time).
Where can I find Real Madrid vs RB Leipzig statistics?
This page covers recent form, head-to-head records, team statistics and other match data used to build the prediction.
What is the head-to-head record between Real Madrid and RB Leipzig?
In the last 4 meetings before this match, Real Madrid won 2, 1 ended in a draw and RB Leipzig won 1.
How have Real Madrid and RB Leipzig been playing recently?
Real Madrid won 8 of their last 10 matches, scoring 2.7 goals per game. RB Leipzig won 4 of their last 10, scoring 1.9 per game.
Why is Real Madrid vs RB Leipzig a featured match?
This fixture is flagged as a featured match in UEFA Champions League, based on its profile and audience interest, so it gets extended coverage on PredictionsFooty.
What are the key factors behind the Real Madrid vs RB Leipzig prediction?
The page looks at recent form, venue form, goal balance, head to head and sets them beside the AI probabilities. For this match: statistics agree.
Is Real Madrid vs RB Leipzig expected to be a high-scoring game?
Recent matches involving the two teams average 3.9 goals, which points to a high-scoring game.
How accurate are PredictionsFooty predictions in UEFA Champions League?
Across the 100 most recent predicted matches before this one, the model called the correct result 59% of the time and the exact score 6% of the time.
Where can I see more UEFA Champions League predictions?
Browse every match on the UEFA Champions League predictions page.