Match overview
AI win probability
Based on pre-game data.
On the model’s numbers, France carries the higher win probability.
Our AI-based model makes predictions based on recent form, home performance, attacking and defensive metrics, and other available match data.
Form comparison
Based on each team's most recent matches before this fixture.
Goals per game
Goal markets
Share of recent matches where each line was met.
France at home vs Italy away
Venue form: home team in home matches, away team in away matches.
Current streaks
- Won last 2
- Clean sheet in last 2
No notable streak
Prediction explained
Key factors
Indicators calculated from each team’s recent matches and their head-to-head record. They describe the data behind the pick and are not the model’s internal weights.
Why this prediction
France faced Italy in a UEFA Nations League fixture on 2 October 2026. Our AI model gives France a 51% chance of winning, the draw 25% and Italy 24%; France carries the higher win probability (confidence: High). Over their last 5 matches, France have averaged 1.8 points per game against 2.0 for Italy. Scoring and conceding rates point to about 1.6 goals for France and 1.4 for Italy. Recent matches involving the two teams average 3.0 goals, which points to a high-scoring game. In their last 2 meetings, France won 1, 0 ended level and Italy won 1. The predicted score is France 3–1 Italy.
Statistics partly agree
The indicators are mixed or close to level, so recent data neither strongly backs nor contradicts the AI pick.
How confident is the call?
Confidence is based on the gap between the two most likely outcomes. For this match the gap is 26 percentage points, which rates as High.
Our prediction
In PredictionsFooty’s model, France carries the higher win probability, based on the available team and match data.
Actual: France 1-1 Italy
Insight
- Italy hold the stronger historical record against France, with 20 wins to Les Bleus' 13. The fixture has produced eight draws.
- Italy have scored 94 goals against France, while France have found the net 67 times.
- Both teams have scored in each of their last five meetings.
- France beat Italy 2-1 in the Euro 2000 final with a golden goal, while Italy won the 2006 World Cup final on penalties after a 1-1 draw following extra time.
- Kylian Mbappé will miss the match with a knee injury.
- Michael Olise has registered 13 goal involvements in his last 14 appearances for France.
- Zinedine Zidane became the first France coach since Aimé Jacquet in 1994 to win his opening match in charge.
Team form and stats
Match facts
- Last 2 meetings: France won 1, drawn 0, Italy won 1 (8 goals in total, 4.0 per game)
- Both teams scored (BTTS) in 2 of the last 2 meetings
- 2 of the last 2 meetings had over 2.5 goals
- Last 1 meetings with France at home: France won 0, drawn 0, Italy won 1
- France: last 10 matches, won 8, drawn 0, lost 2 (scored 22, conceded 10, goal difference +12)
- France kept a clean sheet in 6 of their last 10 matches
- France: last 10 home matches, won 7, drawn 0, lost 3 (scored 26, conceded 12)
- Italy: last 10 matches, won 7, drawn 1, lost 2 (scored 18, conceded 9, goal difference +9)
- Italy kept a clean sheet in 5 of their last 10 matches
- Italy: last 10 away matches, won 7, drawn 2, lost 1 (scored 21, conceded 13)
Head to head
Head-to-head summary
Last 2 meetings before this match.
- Last meetingItaly 1-3 France (17 Nov 2024)
- Biggest winItaly 1-3 France (17 Nov 2024)
Recent results
France recent results
Italy recent results
Prediction accuracy
Track record before this match
How accuracy is measured
- Correct result: the predicted outcome (home win, draw or away win) matches the full-time outcome.
- Exact score: the predicted score equals the full-time score.
- Only finished matches that had a saved prediction are counted. Matches without a prediction are left out, so the sample size is shown on every figure.
- Predictions are saved before kick-off and are not changed afterwards.
- Figures with fewer than 5 predicted matches are not shown, because small samples swing too much to mean anything.
Match information
- CompetitionUEFA Nations League
- MatchFrance vs Italy
- Date2 October 2026
- Kick-off18:45 UTC / 19:45 UK
- Home teamFrance
- Away teamItaly
- StatusFinished (1-1)
Frequently asked questions
Who is predicted to win France vs Italy?
In PredictionsFooty’s model, France carries the higher win probability, based on the available match data.
What is the predicted score for France vs Italy?
The model predicts France 3–1 Italy, with high confidence.
What was the final score of France vs Italy?
France 1-1 Italy.
Was the prediction for France vs Italy correct?
No. The predicted outcome did not match the real result.
When was France vs Italy?
The match was played on 2 October 2026 at 18:45 UTC (19:45 UK time).
Where can I find France vs Italy statistics?
This page covers recent form, head-to-head records, team statistics and other match data used to build the prediction.
What is the head-to-head record between France and Italy?
In the last 2 meetings before this match, France won 1, 0 ended in a draw and Italy won 1.
How have France and Italy been playing recently?
France won 8 of their last 10 matches, scoring 2.2 goals per game. Italy won 7 of their last 10, scoring 1.8 per game.
Why is France vs Italy a featured match?
This fixture is flagged as a featured match in UEFA Nations League, based on its profile and audience interest, so it gets extended coverage on PredictionsFooty.
What are the key factors behind the France vs Italy prediction?
The page looks at recent form, venue form, goal balance and sets them beside the AI probabilities. For this match: statistics partly agree.
Is France vs Italy expected to be a high-scoring game?
Recent matches involving the two teams average 3.0 goals, which points to a high-scoring game.
How accurate are PredictionsFooty predictions in UEFA Nations League?
Across the 100 most recent predicted matches before this one, the model called the correct result 44% of the time and the exact score 10% of the time.
Where can I see more UEFA Nations League predictions?
Browse every match on the UEFA Nations League predictions page.