Match overview
AI win probability
Based on pre-game data.
On the model’s numbers, Italy carries the higher win probability.
Our AI-based model makes predictions based on recent form, home performance, attacking and defensive metrics, and other available match data.
Form comparison
Based on each team's most recent matches before this fixture.
Goals per game
Goal markets
Share of recent matches where each line was met.
Turkey at home vs Italy away
Venue form: home team in home matches, away team in away matches.
Prediction explained
Key factors
Indicators calculated from each team’s recent matches and their head-to-head record. They describe the data behind the pick and are not the model’s internal weights.
Why this prediction
Turkey faced Italy in a UEFA Nations League fixture on 28 September 2026. Our AI model gives Turkey a 28% chance of winning, the draw 30% and Italy 42%; Italy carries the higher win probability (confidence: Medium). Over their last 5 matches, Turkey have averaged 1.2 points per game against 2.0 for Italy. Scoring and conceding rates point to about 1.4 goals for Turkey and 1.4 for Italy. Recent matches involving the two teams average 2.8 goals, which points to a balanced game. In their last 2 meetings, Turkey won 0, 1 ended level and Italy won 1. The predicted score is Turkey 0–1 Italy.
Statistics agree
The recent-form and head-to-head indicators point the same way as the AI pick.
How confident is the call?
Confidence is based on the gap between the two most likely outcomes. For this match the gap is 12 percentage points, which rates as Medium.
Our prediction
In PredictionsFooty’s model, Italy carries the higher win probability, based on the available team and match data.
Actual: Turkey 1-4 Italy
Insight
- Italy have won nine of 13 meetings with Turkiye; four were draws.
- Their last meeting was a 0-0 draw in June 2024.
- Giacomo Raspadori has scored twice against Turkiye, both in a 3-2 friendly win in 2022.
- Turkiye have never beaten Italy in four meetings over the past 26 years.
- Turkiye have kept no clean sheets in their last five matches.
- Goalkeeper Cakir is suspended after being sent off against France.
- Italy have failed to qualify for the last three World Cups.
- In Roberto Mancini’s first spell, Italy set a then-European record 37-match unbeaten run.
- Italy lost 2-0 to Belgium in Mancini’s first match after returning.
Team form and stats
Match facts
- Last 2 meetings: Turkey won 0, drawn 1, Italy won 1 (5 goals in total, 2.5 per game)
- Both teams scored (BTTS) in 1 of the last 2 meetings
- 1 of the last 2 meetings had over 2.5 goals
- Last 1 meetings with Turkey at home: Turkey won 0, drawn 0, Italy won 1
- Turkey: last 10 matches, won 6, drawn 1, lost 3 (scored 15, conceded 9, goal difference +6)
- Turkey kept a clean sheet in 4 of their last 10 matches
- Turkey: last 10 home matches, won 7, drawn 0, lost 3 (scored 19, conceded 13)
- Italy: last 10 matches, won 7, drawn 1, lost 2 (scored 19, conceded 12, goal difference +7)
- Italy kept a clean sheet in 5 of their last 10 matches
- Italy: last 10 away matches, won 7, drawn 2, lost 1 (scored 19, conceded 13)
Head to head
Head-to-head summary
Last 2 meetings before this match.
- Last meetingItaly 0-0 Turkey (4 Jun 2024)
- Biggest winTurkey 2-3 Italy (29 Mar 2022)
Recent results
Turkey recent results
Italy recent results
Prediction accuracy
Track record before this match
How accuracy is measured
- Correct result: the predicted outcome (home win, draw or away win) matches the full-time outcome.
- Exact score: the predicted score equals the full-time score.
- Only finished matches that had a saved prediction are counted. Matches without a prediction are left out, so the sample size is shown on every figure.
- Predictions are saved before kick-off and are not changed afterwards.
- Figures with fewer than 5 predicted matches are not shown, because small samples swing too much to mean anything.
Match information
- CompetitionUEFA Nations League
- MatchTurkey vs Italy
- Date28 September 2026
- Kick-off18:45 UTC / 19:45 UK
- Home teamTurkey
- Away teamItaly
- StatusFinished (1-4)
Frequently asked questions
Who is predicted to win Turkey vs Italy?
In PredictionsFooty’s model, Italy carries the higher win probability, based on the available match data.
What is the predicted score for Turkey vs Italy?
The model predicts Turkey 0–1 Italy, with medium confidence.
What was the final score of Turkey vs Italy?
Turkey 1-4 Italy.
Was the prediction for Turkey vs Italy correct?
Partly. The predicted score was off, but the predicted outcome matched the real result.
When was Turkey vs Italy?
The match was played on 28 September 2026 at 18:45 UTC (19:45 UK time).
Where can I find Turkey vs Italy statistics?
This page covers recent form, head-to-head records, team statistics and other match data used to build the prediction.
What is the head-to-head record between Turkey and Italy?
In the last 2 meetings before this match, Turkey won 0, 1 ended in a draw and Italy won 1.
How have Turkey and Italy been playing recently?
Turkey won 6 of their last 10 matches, scoring 1.5 goals per game. Italy won 7 of their last 10, scoring 1.9 per game.
Why is Turkey vs Italy a featured match?
This fixture is flagged as a featured match in UEFA Nations League, based on its profile and audience interest, so it gets extended coverage on PredictionsFooty.
What are the key factors behind the Turkey vs Italy prediction?
The page looks at recent form, venue form, goal balance and sets them beside the AI probabilities. For this match: statistics agree.
Is Turkey vs Italy expected to be a high-scoring game?
Recent matches involving the two teams average 2.8 goals, which points to a balanced game.
How accurate are PredictionsFooty predictions in UEFA Nations League?
Across the 100 most recent predicted matches before this one, the model called the correct result 46% of the time and the exact score 14% of the time.
Where can I see more UEFA Nations League predictions?
Browse every match on the UEFA Nations League predictions page.